A significant turning point for Canada’s commercial real estate (CRE) industry was reached on December 11, 2024, when the Bank of Canada decided to lower its overnight lending rate target to 3.25%. This policy change, the fifth rate cut since April 2024, is expected to impact leasing, development, and investment activities nationwide in 2025 and determine the direction of the CRE market.
The Context Behind the Rate Reduction
A key factor in Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery is monetary policy. Consumer spending, borrowing expenses, and total economic growth are all directly impacted by interest rates. Financial markets generally expected a rate cut in the run-up to the December announcement, highlighting how crucial it is for investors and companies.
In less than a year, the overnight lending rate has decreased by 1.75% as a result of the 50 basis point decrease and earlier reductions in 2024. The cost of capital has significantly decreased for the CRE industry, which mostly depends on financing for developments and acquisitions.
Impact on Borrowing Costs and CRE Investment
Lower Borrowing Costs for Developers
The decrease in borrowing costs is among the most direct effects of rate decreases. Lower interest rates can help developers who are planning new projects or who are looking to refinance existing debt, increasing the viability and profitability of their initiatives. We can anticipate more groundbreaking for new projects in 2025. As developers take advantage of lower borrowing costs, industries like industrial real estate and mixed-use complexes will probably witness a spike in activity. Due to lower borrowing thresholds, smaller market actors may be able to enter the CRE sector, which would encourage competition and innovation.
Increased Appeal for CRE Investments
In contrast to fixed-income assets like bonds, which generally lose appeal in low-rate settings, investors might expect higher yields on CRE when interest rates are lower. Increased investment in industries like office, retail, and industrial real estate is anticipated as a result of this dynamic.
Sector-Specific Impacts
Industrial Real Estate
In 2025, the industrial real estate market is expected to grow thanks to the demand for logistics and e-commerce. The rate reductions will make it less expensive to build warehouses, distribution facilities, and last-mile logistics hubs, especially in places with high demand, like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.
Office Space
The shift in demand due to remote employment has presented issues for the office industry. Nonetheless, the reduced financing rates can persuade companies to rent or purchase office space in cities, especially for hybrid work arrangements. In this setting, coworking facilities and flexible workplace ideas might win out.
Retail CRE
In 2025, the retail industry will face a variety of challenges. The recovery of the retail industry depends on customer confidence and purchasing trends, even though lower rates can encourage renovating retail facilities. Specialty retail markets and immigrant entrepreneurs may significantly influence the demand for retail space.
Impact on CRE Financing and Lending Practices
Mortgage rates and other financing choices are impacted in a cascading manner by the decreased overnight lending rate. Because institutional and private lenders are anticipated to provide more favourable terms for CRE loans in 2025, allowing developers and investors to grow their portfolios, we foresee improved access to money. Opportunities for refinance: Homeowners who already owe money may be able to refinance at reduced rates, freeing up funds for other projects or reinvestment. Investors can use reduced borrowing costs to strengthen their positions and pursue riskier or larger ventures.
Inflation and Employment
Lower interest rates affect inflation and employment even though they boost economic activity. The action taken by the Bank of Canada indicates a careful balancing act between controlling inflationary pressures and promoting growth. Because rising labour and construction costs may cancel out some benefits of lower borrowing costs, CRE stakeholders must look for inflation threats. The demand for office space, retail establishments, and residential developments in mixed-use projects is expected to be supported by a robust job market, especially in urban areas.
Regional Insights for 2025
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
The GTA is anticipated to continue to be a hub for CRE activity in 2025. Due to the strong demand for e-commerce, industrial constructions will predominate, but as hybrid work models solidify, downtown office space may experience a modest resurgence.
Vancouver
Vancouver’s position as a gateway for global trade will help the city’s real estate market. The main growth zones will be industrial areas and mixed-use projects that serve the country’s expanding immigrant population.
Montreal
Investors find Montreal to be a desirable alternative due to its reasonably priced commercial real estate compared to other major Canadian cities. The need for office space and flexible work arrangements will be fueled by the city’s startup community and IT sector.
Opportunities and Challenges in 2025
Opportunities
Sustainable Developments: Developers may prioritize eco-friendly projects if borrowing costs are reduced, which would meet the growing demand for green buildings.
Mixed-Use Projects: Especially in urban areas, the movement to combine office, retail, and residential space will pick up steam.
Secondary Markets: Due to lower entry fees and rising demand, secondary markets may be a good option for investors looking for better yields.
Challenges
Economic Uncertainty: Market volatility may result from the possibility of policy changes or economic shocks.
Tenant Preferences: To stay competitive, developers may need to quickly adjust to changing tenant demands, especially in the office and retail sectors.